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Houses for sale vs rentals - analysis

Submitted by: MikeC (Admin) on 29-Apr-09 05:47:11 PM

In a written answer to Tory shadow minister, Grant Shapps - who asked: ‘What estimate has been made of the number of residential properties in the (a) private and (b) social rented sector which have received an energy performance certificate’ - Margaret Beckett, minister for the CLG, replied:

The facility to lodge rental EPCs in the central register became available on 22 September 2008. In the period since 22 September 2008, 537,413 EPCs have been lodged in the private rented and 204,294 EPCs have been lodged in the social rented sector.

House of Commons Hansard Written Answers for 28 Apr 2009

Summed together, amounts to 741,707 Energy Performance Certificates for the rental sector alone – that’s some going in just 7 months!

It averages 105,958 rental EPCs per month (assuming her figures are correct as of yesterday – she doesn’t say).

The last known figures showing total EPCs lodged - that I’m aware of – were released last month (23rd Mar 2009), and stood at 2 million EPCs.

So we can now roughly separate the numbers to give us a breakdown showing how many EPCs have been lodged for marketed homes, versus rentals.

EPCs on houses for sale vs rentals

By subtracting 105,958 from 741,707 (giving us 635,749), we arrive at an approximate state of play, as of last month – the month we know 2 million EPCs were lodged.

If we then calculate: 2,000,000 (total EPCs) – 635,749 (rental EPCs)

We get 1,364,251 total EPCs, net of rentals (avg), to last month.

So 1,364,251 EPCs lodged for homes marketed between August 1st 2007 to 23 Mar 2009 = roughly 19 months.

Of course, only 4-bed homes and higher required an EPC in August 2007, followed by 3-beds on September 10th 2007, and all homes 14th December 2007, which complicates a more thorough analysis.

But if we dare tread further and work on the nearest numbers to December 2008 from my spreadsheet, and deduct rental averages, as above (ow, my brain already hurts) then I arrive at this (jump to the next header to skip my maths):

423,832 EPCs (4 mths x 105,958 to give avg mthly rental EPCs lodged) deducted from 741,707

= 317,875 (rental EPCs lodged up to Jan 09 - average).

2nd Jan 2008: 257,820 total EPCs lodged.

9th Jan 2009: 1,500,000 total EPCs lodged.

Deduct former from latter to give us EPCs lodged over (roughly) 12 months:

Total = 1,242,180

Deduct rental EPCs: 1,242,180 – 317,875 = 924,305

EPCs lodged for all marketed homes between Jan 08 – Jan 09

So we arrive at (very) roughly 924,305 EPCs lodged for all homes marketed for sale in the period Jan 08 – Jan 09.

Not quite the exact period we would like, I know, but it would be interesting to see how close that number matches Rightmove’s housing market data for the same period. It would certainly seem to reflect the depressed housing market activity.

Would be interested to hear of any better numbers, or if my calculations could be improved.

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