Yesterday’s CLG totals are confusing
Last night, whilst refining the table of EPC numbers released by John Healey of the CLG a couple of days ago, it suddenly dawned on me that his reported total of domestic EPCs since August 07 - 2,065,221 – is somewhere in the region of a million less than the total reported on the HCR Register.
Healey’s figures were to November 1st 09.
On 4th November the total number of lodged RdSAP EPCs stood at 3,494,635 (see EPC Numbers for Oct 09). That excludes domestic SAP EPCs, as does Healey’s stats.
So what’s going on?
The EPC Register has the following disclaimer:
Please note these figures will include cancelled / not for issue reports and multiple reports on a single Unique Property Reference Number.
Are we to believe that well over a million fall into this category - around a third?
If we cross-reference just one month from Healey’s stats – December 2008 – with that of the EPC Register, here’s what we see:
| Info provider | Period | Totals |
|---|---|---|
| John Healey (CLG) | 1 December 2008 - 4 January 2009 | 36,046 |
| HCR Register | December 2008 | 121,347 |
Even with the additional 4 days of January in Healey’s total, we still see a massive difference of 85,301 EPCs.
Marketed sales
I re-read Healey’s statement and noticed two words that didn’t fully register when I first read it: marketed sales. Grant Shapps, after all, was seeking the number of HIPs supplied.
If we apply his words literally as written, then, marketed sales pertain only to the second half of the table; i.e.,from 22 September 2008 – 1st Nov 09.
The first half of the table – again, if applying his words literally – pertain only to EPCs lodged on the EPC Register.
I have provided a simplified summary table showing separate totals for both periods below.
What does this tell us?
I can see how Healey may have been forced to split the figures like this: lack of foresight into the initial planning and implementation of the EPC Register database.
If this analysis is right, then yeah, there is seemingly a huge difference between marketed sales and the above disclaimer of the HCR Register.
| Category | Period | Total (EPCs) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPC Register | August 2007 - Sept 21st 2008 | 1,083,872 | "EPCs lodged on the EPC Register between 1 August 2007 and 21 September 2008. These totals include some 87,000 EPCs produced by local authorities and housing associations for rented homes as part of the social housing pilot." |
| Marketed sales | Sept 22nd 2008 - Nov 1st 2009 | 981,349 | "The number of EPCs produced for marketed sales since 22 September 2008. These totals are listed on a weekly basis and exclude EPCs for new homes using SAP as it is not possible to distinguish between EPCs produced in respect of new homes being built for rent and those being built for sale." |
| Grand total | 2,065,221 | ||
Posts: 1
Reply #1 on : Sat December 12, 2009, 16:45:03